Central banking is a science, not an art, Tamal Bandyopadhyay tells RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
The Reserve Bank will go for a "dovish pause" at Wednesday's policy review announcement amid developments such as a rise in inflation, government maintaining the inflation target band and a likely impact on growth due to local lockdowns on rising COVID-19 infections, analysts said on Monday. Economists at American brokerage Bofa Securities said price stability, growth and financial stability will become the prime focus areas for the central bank going forward. "The RBI MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) should deliver another dovish pause on Wednesday," it said. The policy announcement, the first for the fiscal, will come days after the government maintained the RBI's target to ensure inflation to be within 2-6 per cent band for five more years.
Rupee has depreciated 8 per cent against the US dollar since beginning May'13.
Senior bankers point out that while they will eventually attract qualified professionals, onboarding them takes time.
Weakness of the dollar in the overseas market also boosted the rupee, a forex dealer said.
After an extremely stable 2023, the Indian rupee started 2024 on a promising note and has turned out to be the best-performing Asian currency so far in January, appreciating 0.1 per cent despite 2 per cent rise in the dollar index. All other Asian currencies depreciated by around 1.4-4 per cent during the month. The local currency regained its ground against the greenback on the back of foreign portfolio inflows, said market participants.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the benchmark lending rate by 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent to tame inflation.
It is not in our interest for the rupeee to rise against the dollar in which our exports are invoiced.
Already retail inflation has risen to 6.07 per cent in February, crossing the upper band of the Parliamentary mandate. This is the second consecutive month in 2022 when retail inflation has crossed the 6 per cent mark having hit 6.01 per cent in January.
Historically, the RBI has tried to keep the crooks at bay by issuing a circular a day. What it needs is more onsite supervision. Merely checking high-frequency data with the help of technology is insufficient, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Those hardest hit by the second wave of the pandemic have been blue-collared workers, doctors and healthcare workers, law and order and municipal personnel, individuals eking out daily livelihood, and small businesses. And there should be more measures taken to alleviate their pain, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday. The report also indicated that the RBI's growth numbers might have to be revisited as the central bank's real GDP growth projection of 26.2 per cent given in the MPC's resolution of April 7 for the first quarter of 2021-22, were "made before the full fury of the resurgence." Nevertheless, the "resurgence of COVID-19 has dented but not debilitated economic activity in the first half of Q1: 2021-22.
Credit bureaus have become a weapon banks wield even against a consumer who deserves much better.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said 67 per cent of the decline in the foreign exchange reserves since April was due to valuation changes arising from strengthening US dollar and higher American bond yields. The forex reserves, which stood at $606.475 billion as on April 2, have declined to $537.5 billion as on September 23. It was also the eighth straight week when the reserves declined.
What is killing the risk appetite of the bond buyers is the inconsistency in the central bank's approach. It needs to allow the yield to find its own level, gradually. To ensure that, the RBI may adopt a similar approach with which it handles a slipping rupee, asserts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The rupee on Monday plunged by 48 paise to hit its life-time low of Rs 57.54 in early trade on heavy dollar demand and the US currency strengthening against major rivals overseas.
The rally in PSBs, analysts feel, was more a knee-jerk reaction to the development, and the actual benefits will start to accrue once the addition takes place in 2024. "The actual benefit for banks from the inclusion in JP Morgan's EM Index will accrue from June 2024 onwards. "Until then, the larger fundamentals of the market will dictate the moves. "Once the initial euphoria subsides, bond markets will look to global cues which may trigger fresh selling," said Siddharth Khemka, head of retail research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the retail inflation forecast for 2021-22 to 5.7 per cent due to supply side constraints, high crude oil and raw materials cost. The RBI in June had pegged the retail inflation estimate at 5.1 per cent for the current financial year. The RBI has the mandate to keep inflation in a band of 2-4 per cent, with a tolerance level of 2 per cent on either side.
The rupee fell to a record low of 59.9350 to the dollar, breaching past its all-time low of 58.98 on June 11.
The rupee on Tuesday lost 11 paise to Rs 55.85 against the US dollar in early trade on the Interbank Foreign Exchange following dollar gains against other currencies overseas amid a weak trend in the equity market.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Tuesday that India's general government debt (comprising both central and state government debt) could exceed 100 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term. It also cautioned that long-term debt sustainability risks are high due to the significant investment required to meet India's climate change mitigation targets. The Indian government, however, disagreed, arguing that risks from sovereign debt are extremely limited as it is predominantly denominated in domestic currency.
The Malegam committee on the RBI's capital adequacy had suggested that the RBI must move away from its methodology to calculate the foreign exchange gains to a weighted average cost-based valuation method. Central bank may done away with provisioning requirements, to enable higher transfer of surplus in the 2017-18 fiscal, analysts say.
From the markets' perspective, a greater predictability of the RBI's intervention will give them a space to operate in.
The domestic currency has fallen past the 56-level against the dollar after June 29.
Sentiments were weighed down as the US dollar turned higher against its major counterparts.
Traders suspect The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bought bonds and actively intervened in the rupee to support sentiment.
The value of rupee has fallen by over 300 per cent since 1990.
The rupee has depreciated 9.7 per cent against the US dollar over a year and with the RBI stemming the rupee's weakness through dollar sales, its reserves have dropped to their lowest levels since October, 2020. The fall in reserves has widespread implications.
The RBI governor is focused on growth, and keeping rupee slightly depreciated is part of that 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' strategy.
The Reserve Bank on Monday asked all banks and financial institutions to assess the impact on their balance sheet, asset quality, liquidity, among others, in the wake of the potential threat arising out of the spread of coronavirus disease in India. Several confirmed cases have also been detected in India, which highlight the need of a co-ordinated strategy for handling the emerging situations to protect the resilience of the Indian financial system, RBI said in a notification addressed to banks, urban cooperative banks, NBFCs, payment and small finance banks.
'The private sector believes that some enablers in labour-intensive sectors like apparel, toys, tourism, and media retail, can unlock a lot of jobs.'
April policy could be all about RBI communication.
Hinting at further relaxation in the capital account convertibility norms, RBI Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar on Thursday said the country is on the cusp of some fundamental shifts with regard to currency management. India has come a long way in achieving increasing levels of convertibility on the capital account and has broadly achieved the desired outcome for the policy choices in terms of achieving a stable composition of foreign capital inflow, Sankar said while addressing the Foreign Exchange Dealers' Association of India's (FEDAI) annual day meeting. Convertibility refers to the ability to convert domestic currency into foreign currencies and vice versa to make payments for balance of payments transactions.
Sitharaman also said different departments of the government are working to provide relief to industry, which could be severely impacted by the fast-spreading virus.
Numbers could be classified further into (140) marketing and (160 or 161) for service calls to easily identify the purpose of the call in the future.
'His (Das) approach to work seems that of working as a team with ease in communication.'
The central bank had revised its inflation forecast significantly downward in the last policy
The resurgence of COVID-19 has dented but not debilitated economic activities in the first half of Q1 of the current fiscal even though caseload of infections is much higher than before, according to an RBI article. The ferocity of the second COVID-19 wave has overwhelmed India and the world, the article said, adding that war efforts have been mounted to stop the surge in its tracks. "The impact of the second wave on the real economy seems to be limited so far in comparison with the first wave. Evidently, the localised nature of lockdowns, better adaptation of people to work from home protocols, online delivery models, e-commerce and digital payments are at work," the article on the state of economy authored by RBI Deputy Governor M D Patra and other officials said.
The RBI said the payment systems landscape will continue to change with further innovation and entry of more players which is expected to ensure optimal cost to the customers and freer access to multiple payment system options.
India needs a second green revolution along with the next generation of reforms with a view to make agriculture more climate-resistant and environmentally sustainable, said an RBI article on farm sector challenges. Observing that Indian agriculture has exhibited remarkable resilience during the COVID-19 period, the article said "new emerging challenges warrant a second green revolution along with next-generation reforms". Despite the success in terms of production that has ensured food security in the country, food inflation and its volatility remain a challenge, which requires supply-side interventions such as higher public investment, storage infrastructure and promotion of food processing, said the article titled 'Indian Agriculture: Achievements and Challenges'.
Seeking to dispel possible notions of the RBI not having done enough by opting for a pause for the second consecutive time, Das said the RBI has a wide dashboard of instruments beyond rates that can be deployed.
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